Stock Trading Predictions & Technical Analysis: TIVO - BUY SIGNAL

Monday, October 19, 2009

TIVO - BUY SIGNAL - Ascending Triangle Breakout

TIVO - BUY SIGNAL - BUY CONFIRMED - October 20th

Today TIVO gave us a BUY SIGNAL for an ascending triangle formation, after having a breakout above its critical resistance level at $11.00. We should get a BUY CONFIRMATION tomorrow if the price holds up above $11.00. TIVO has some resistance at $11.66; a break and close above this level would give us a STRONG BUY. I have taken a long position (anticipating a BUY CONFIRMATION) at the close at $11.30, with a stop loss at $10.75. TIVO has support around its 50 day MA at approximately $10.44. However, a move around $10.75 would mean that TIVO will have fallen back (reversal) within its ascending triangle trend, and would most likely go as low as $10.44 before having a chance of bouncing back up. Therefore, there is no point on taking on a higher loss than we need to and that's why my stop loss order is higher than my usual -7.00%. As I indicated a close above $11.66, would give us a STRONG BUY, but it would be preferable to see a second consecutive day of gains before confirming the STRONG BUY. Despite that, since I cannot always be in front of my computer at each significant moves, i have a set a Sop Buy order for more shares at $11.75 (approximatelly an additionnal 27%-32.5% cash of my max intended investement for TIVO).

Please note that I will be soon posting my updated trading strategy Y-Swing 2.5, which will explain my reasoning towards my change in strategy regarding how I set set my stop orders.

Long TIVO@ $11.30 - Stop Loss @ $10.60 (-6.19%) - Stop Buy @ $11.75 (+3.98%)

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TECHNICAL INDICATORS

BUY SIGNAL: Indicates the possibility of the start of a new up trend or the continuation of the current up trend. This signal may be often given in the early stages of a potential new up trend that was preceded by a down or sideways trend. Such signals do not always succeed and may fail at time.

BUY: Indicates that the current up trend is already in motion and a BUY SIGNAL was already given earlier. A BUY does not necessarily indicate that the stock will continue higher from here, but simply that the stock is trending up. The further into the trend you decide to take a long position, the more risk you have of seeing it reverse back down sooner rather than later.

STRONG BUY SIGNAL: Indicates a stronger, more significant and reliable signal than a BUY SIGNAL which usually has less chance of failing. Such signals do not always succeed and may fail at time.

STRONG BUY: Indicates that the current up trend is already in motion and that STRONG BUY SIGNAL was already given.

SELL SIGNAL: Indicates the possibility of the start of a new down trend or the continuation of the current down trend. This signal may be often given in the early stages of a potential new down trend that was preceded by an up or sideways trend. Such signals do not always succeed and may fail at time.

SELL: Indicates that the current down trend is already in motion and a SELL SIGNAL was already given earlier. A SELL does not necessarily indicate that the stock will continue lower from here, but simply that the stock is trending down. The further into the trend you decide to sell a position, the more risk you have of seeing it reverse back up.

STRONG SELL SIGNAL: Indicates a stronger, more significant and reliable signal than a SELL SIGNAL which usually has less chance of failing. Such signals do not always succeed and may fail at time.

STRONG SELL: Indicates that the current down trend is already in motion and that STRONG SELL SIGNAL was already given.

HOLD: Indicates that traders who already hold this stock, should hold on as long as the trend persists. This signal is usually given during an up trend for which it would be considered too risky to take a long position at this point.

STRONG HOLD: Indicates that the current trend has been in motion for a while and rarely deviated away from the trend. Although the stock may continue higher, there may not be enough potential up side to trigger a BUY SIGNAL. This type of indicator usually means that the stock has very strong support levels which may have been tested but not broken.

WAIT: Usually given during a sideways trend for which we are waiting for a move that would trigger a BUY SIGNAL or SELL SIGNAL. This could also indicate uncertainty and the risk that would be taken if you were to take a long position at the current level. Taking a long position after giving a WAIT indicator is considered a gamble.