Stock Trading Predictions & Technical Analysis: AAPL

Monday, October 19, 2009

AAPL - Beats expectations

AAPL - BUY SIGNAL/BUY CONFIRMED & STRONG BUY (Tomorrow)

Today AAPL has beated its earnings expectations, and has given us a BUY SIGNAL that will be a BUY CONFIRMED tomorrow, after it bounced back up its support level along its uptrend. Based on the after-hours, AAPL will have a breakout tomorrow, confirming our BUY signal with a second straight up day, and continuing its uptrend. AAPL also had a nice pop to its volume adding fuel to the BUY SIGNAL. We will likely have an accelerated uptrend tomorrow with a close above $200.00-$205.00, in which we could possibly see AAPL trade within a new channel. I am still long AAPL with positions at $184.24 (61.60% of max intended position) and $189.76 (23.92% of max intended position).

AAPL has hit an all time high during after-hours and will most likely close at an all-time high tomorrow, giving us a STRONG BUY. Since the month of March, AAPL has consistently increased along its 50 day MA. A record closing tomorrow with a breakout, would indicate that AAPL will have gone over its 0% retracement level, which means that AAPL could then see its price increase as high as $299.57($202.96+$96.6078) within 1 year ($202.96-$76.51= $126.45 x 0.236= +$29.8422; x 0.382= +$48.3039; x 0.50= +$63.225; x 0.618= +$78.1461; x 0.764= +$96.6078). The next resistance/retracement levels for AAPL regarding Fibonacci would be: $232.80, $251.26, $266.19, $281.10, $299.57. This means that any move above each of these levels would likely lead AAPL onto the next higher level before going through some resistance.

Long AAPL @ $184.24 & $189.76 - Stop Loss @ $172.74 (very likely increased soon)

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TECHNICAL INDICATORS

BUY SIGNAL: Indicates the possibility of the start of a new up trend or the continuation of the current up trend. This signal may be often given in the early stages of a potential new up trend that was preceded by a down or sideways trend. Such signals do not always succeed and may fail at time.

BUY: Indicates that the current up trend is already in motion and a BUY SIGNAL was already given earlier. A BUY does not necessarily indicate that the stock will continue higher from here, but simply that the stock is trending up. The further into the trend you decide to take a long position, the more risk you have of seeing it reverse back down sooner rather than later.

STRONG BUY SIGNAL: Indicates a stronger, more significant and reliable signal than a BUY SIGNAL which usually has less chance of failing. Such signals do not always succeed and may fail at time.

STRONG BUY: Indicates that the current up trend is already in motion and that STRONG BUY SIGNAL was already given.

SELL SIGNAL: Indicates the possibility of the start of a new down trend or the continuation of the current down trend. This signal may be often given in the early stages of a potential new down trend that was preceded by an up or sideways trend. Such signals do not always succeed and may fail at time.

SELL: Indicates that the current down trend is already in motion and a SELL SIGNAL was already given earlier. A SELL does not necessarily indicate that the stock will continue lower from here, but simply that the stock is trending down. The further into the trend you decide to sell a position, the more risk you have of seeing it reverse back up.

STRONG SELL SIGNAL: Indicates a stronger, more significant and reliable signal than a SELL SIGNAL which usually has less chance of failing. Such signals do not always succeed and may fail at time.

STRONG SELL: Indicates that the current down trend is already in motion and that STRONG SELL SIGNAL was already given.

HOLD: Indicates that traders who already hold this stock, should hold on as long as the trend persists. This signal is usually given during an up trend for which it would be considered too risky to take a long position at this point.

STRONG HOLD: Indicates that the current trend has been in motion for a while and rarely deviated away from the trend. Although the stock may continue higher, there may not be enough potential up side to trigger a BUY SIGNAL. This type of indicator usually means that the stock has very strong support levels which may have been tested but not broken.

WAIT: Usually given during a sideways trend for which we are waiting for a move that would trigger a BUY SIGNAL or SELL SIGNAL. This could also indicate uncertainty and the risk that would be taken if you were to take a long position at the current level. Taking a long position after giving a WAIT indicator is considered a gamble.