Stock Trading Predictions & Technical Analysis: Trading Signals Performance - Dow Jones, LVS, MGM, AUY, BAC, C, AIG, AAPL

Sunday, October 11, 2009

Trading Signals Performance - Dow Jones, LVS, MGM, AUY, BAC, C, AIG, AAPL

Ever since I started this blog on September 1st, I've made many predictions, but it's has been hard to keep track of my performance before I started giving clear trade signals: BUY, SELL, HOLD, WAIT. I've tried making this type of posts back in September, but I realized how difficult it was to measure my performance when I wasn't giving those trade signals. Today I've decided to make a post with a chart of many stocks for which I've given clear trade signals, indicating what the price was the day I've given the signal, and where it went thereafter. Keep in mind that I could never be able to keep a day-to-day tracking of each stock predictions, as things can change very quickly. For example I may have given a BUY signal at one point that may or may not proved profitable, but at the time I'm writing this this indicator may no longer be valid. You have to understand that I would never be able to keep track of everything on a regular basis, but nonetheless I think I will be concentrating on whether the moment I gave a trade signal, if the stock actually moved in the direction I predicted in the following days. In each chart you will see circles of different colors associated to my trading signals:
BUY - GREEN, SELL - RED, HOLD - YELLOW, WAIT - GREY, PRICE TARGET - BLUE

Please note that despite these predictions, it would be best to judge my performance based on my individual posts which explained my reasoning and what trend was I following when I made my prediction. For example for the Dow Jones, despite giving multiple HOLD signals while the Dow Jones was trending down, I actually did predict that it could pullback as low as 9450 (actual 9430), since I was basing my signals on the major trend which is still up. In the shorter term, the HOLD signal of September 21st would have been a SELL. I said to HOLD on September 24th, since I expected the Dow Jones to hold up at 9450.

In some cases I indicated where there could be support and resistance levels and how to act on within different scenarios. Therefore, the BUY & SELL signals can be biased at times. Sometimes I will give a BUY signal, but indicate that the share price may have a hard time going over a certain level, but if it did go over it would add strength to the signal. The issue with technical analysis is that it's not a perfect science, and there is a lot of "IFs", and is a tool used to take risk averse decisions into entering and exiting positions. I strongly suggest you read my individual posts when making trading decisions, and you should never base those decisions solely by looking at my trading signals. I originally did not want to have to give trade signals, but I felt I had to give clearer indications as to how to act based on my prediction.

Dow Jones

September 4th: 9441.27 HOLD
September 10th: 9627.48 BUY
September 21st: 9778.86 HOLD
September 24th: 9707.44 HOLD
October 1st: 9665.19 HOLD
October 5-6th: 9599.65-9731.25 BUY
October 9th: 9864.94 HOLD

LVS

September 4th: $15.51 - HOLD
September 14th: $18.06 - HOLD
September 16th: $18.67 - SELL
October 5th: $17.45 - BUY

Please note that on September 24th I gave a HOLD signal that should have been a WAIT, since it was not preceded by a BUY; also we had another SELL signal 4 days later that I had not posted about, and is obviously not indicated (circled) in the chart.

MGM

September 8th: $9.41 - BUY
September 11th: $11.84 - SELL
September 14th: $12.34 - WAIT
September 15th: $13.37 - BUY
September 16th: $12.40 - SELL
September 21st: $13.10 - WAIT
September 24th: $12.14 - WAIT
October 1st: $10.71 - SELL
October 3rd: $11.06 - WAIT
October 6th: $12.13 - BUY

AUY

September 2nd: $10.19 BUY
September 9th: $10.16 WAIT
September 10th: $10.64 BUY
September 14th: $10.67 HOLD
September 16th: $11.38 BUY
September 18th: $10.89 WAIT
September 21st: $10.76 SELL (WAIT)
September 24th: $10.36 WAIT
September 25th: $10.09 WAIT
October 6th: $11.35 BUY (HOLD)

BAC

September 14th: $16.99 WAIT
September 16th: $17.25 WAIT
September 17th: $17.61 BUY
October 2nd: $16.34 SELL

Please note that BAC has given us a BUY signal on October 6th at $17.00 when it crossed back over its 50 day MA. However, I did not post anything indicating it.

Note: BAC has been one of the hardest stocks to make predictions for ever since I started this blog, and as you can see, you would have been whipsawed based on my last predictions.

C

September 8th: $4.68 SELL
September 14th: $4.52 SELL
September 15th: $4.12 SELL
September 17th $4.42 BUY
September 24th $4.43 SELL
October 9th: $4.63 HOLD

AIG

August 20th: $32.30 BUY
August 28th: $50.23 SELL
September 14th: $41.11WAIT
September 21st $48.40 BUY
September 24th $45.80 WAIT

AAPL

September 17th: $184.55 BUY
September 24th: $183.82 HOLD

3 comments:

mycOctober 12, 2009 at 8:31 AM
hi Yoel,
it was fantastic notes regading fibonacci retracements, I love it

what is your opinion, expectation, prediction on Citigroup before their Q3 erarning release on 15 Oct? I bouth it at 4.3, with a great profit realized till.
Should I wait the release (hold) or not (sell) or wait any signals or buy more....?

thanks
L
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UnknownOctober 12, 2009 at 11:57 AM
Hi Yoel, regarding your Y strategy I was just wondering if after you set your -7% stop loss, you happen to get a SELL signal, do you sell at that point or do you stick it out hoping for a reversal even though chances are that it will eventually drop to your stop loss price. Thanks.
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YoelOctober 12, 2009 at 2:36 PM
It is impossible to know what will happen to C before or just after the earnings report. You should never take a position prior to the earnings release, since this is pure gambling. You should always after the earnings report before making any decisions. C has strong resistance at $4.85, $5.00, and $5.25. A break above these levels after a positive earnings report would be bullish, and BUY signals. C also has very strong support at its 50 day MA at $4.45, $4.25-$4.20. I think you got in at a very good price, where you have a lot of support above you entry point. Also a break above current levels will indicate the recent uptrend for C will continue.

Regarding my strategy, when I set my -7.00% stop loss and it gets triggered, I often did get a SELL signal, and sometimes before for which I would sell my shares before having it triggered. I always set my -7.00% stop loss order the moment I purchase my shares. No matter what the technicals say, the moment my stock's share price is down -7.00%, I sell.
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TECHNICAL INDICATORS

BUY SIGNAL: Indicates the possibility of the start of a new up trend or the continuation of the current up trend. This signal may be often given in the early stages of a potential new up trend that was preceded by a down or sideways trend. Such signals do not always succeed and may fail at time.

BUY: Indicates that the current up trend is already in motion and a BUY SIGNAL was already given earlier. A BUY does not necessarily indicate that the stock will continue higher from here, but simply that the stock is trending up. The further into the trend you decide to take a long position, the more risk you have of seeing it reverse back down sooner rather than later.

STRONG BUY SIGNAL: Indicates a stronger, more significant and reliable signal than a BUY SIGNAL which usually has less chance of failing. Such signals do not always succeed and may fail at time.

STRONG BUY: Indicates that the current up trend is already in motion and that STRONG BUY SIGNAL was already given.

SELL SIGNAL: Indicates the possibility of the start of a new down trend or the continuation of the current down trend. This signal may be often given in the early stages of a potential new down trend that was preceded by an up or sideways trend. Such signals do not always succeed and may fail at time.

SELL: Indicates that the current down trend is already in motion and a SELL SIGNAL was already given earlier. A SELL does not necessarily indicate that the stock will continue lower from here, but simply that the stock is trending down. The further into the trend you decide to sell a position, the more risk you have of seeing it reverse back up.

STRONG SELL SIGNAL: Indicates a stronger, more significant and reliable signal than a SELL SIGNAL which usually has less chance of failing. Such signals do not always succeed and may fail at time.

STRONG SELL: Indicates that the current down trend is already in motion and that STRONG SELL SIGNAL was already given.

HOLD: Indicates that traders who already hold this stock, should hold on as long as the trend persists. This signal is usually given during an up trend for which it would be considered too risky to take a long position at this point.

STRONG HOLD: Indicates that the current trend has been in motion for a while and rarely deviated away from the trend. Although the stock may continue higher, there may not be enough potential up side to trigger a BUY SIGNAL. This type of indicator usually means that the stock has very strong support levels which may have been tested but not broken.

WAIT: Usually given during a sideways trend for which we are waiting for a move that would trigger a BUY SIGNAL or SELL SIGNAL. This could also indicate uncertainty and the risk that would be taken if you were to take a long position at the current level. Taking a long position after giving a WAIT indicator is considered a gamble.