TIVO - Holding Up (Updated: Inverted Hammer)

TIVO - BUY SIGNAL

So far yesterday and today TIVO has managed to hold around the $11.66 support level hitting a low of $11.61 yesterday and a low of $11.62 so far today. This bounce back up is bullish and strengthens this support level, making it safer to enter a position around these levels assuming the price holds up.

Update: TIVO has given us an inverted hammer bar pattern today, which usually indicates a bottom within the current trend. Therefore, I expect TIVO to move higher tomorrow. Please keep in mind that when I give support or resistance levels, such as $11.66 it will rarely hold up exactly at this point and you could expect a bounce from around this level perphaps +/-$0.05 to $0.15. Also when using stockcharts.com it's hard to give the most precise support and resistance levels. That's why that despite having a support level of APPROXIMATELY $11.66, I had originally set a stop loss of $11.57 and not $11.66. This is to get a sharp sell signal or cross through the support level, that is significant enough to not get whipsawed.. However when I took a better look at the chart today it did have the potential to go as low as $11.48-$11.50, and therefore I slightly lowerered the stop loss to $11.52, specifically because this is the point for which I would be able to exit my position with no loss (including commissions). In fact after going as low as $11.55, TIVO did close slightly up over $11.66 at $11.72. My stop loss could have easily been triggered to then see TIVO bounce back up, because TIVO currently has a lot of support levels at prices that are very close to one another, but I still chose to set a stop loss of $11.52 to not risk making any losses. In fact TIVO next support levels below $11.66, are $11.50, $11.25 and $11.00. So it just matters how low are you willing to let it go, and mostly at what price did you enter. For my part I entered my position at an average of $11.43 at $11.30 and $11.75. Also, as you may recall I had set a stop buy order last week at $11.75 rather than $11.66 specifically to not get a false BUY signal and see TIVO fall back after hitting precisely $11.66. By waiting to see it cross more sharply at around $11.75 on Friday, TIVO moved up as high as $12.78 I believe. A big pullback yesterday, was to be expected after a +10.00% move for TIVO on Friday, however it's impossible to know for sure and it could have moved even higher too. Right now, there are a few bullish signals that lead me to believe TIVO will move highr starting tomorrow: 1) TIVO has managed to hold up over $11.50-$11.66 for the last three trading session since moving sharply over $11.00 2) Despite yesterday's big pullbback which gave up much of the gains of Friday, TIVO still held up over $11.50-$11.66. 3) Today TIVO only moved partially lower, held up above $11.50 and closed slightly up over $11.66 at $11.72, giving us an inverted hammer (bottom signal). You can consider today's action, possibly another buying opportunity. TIVO should be able to close up over $12.00 either tomorrow or by the end of the week, which would most likely make $12.00 are latest support level after any bounce back up from $12.00 then. Keep in mind that TIVO could still fall tomorrow and give us a SELL signal, and that is why you have to remember that I cannot predict the future, but usually when I give for example a BUY signal, this usually means that the probabilities of getting a confirmation or of seeing the price move higher are higher than seeing the stock move downwards. So basically that's what I'm saying towards TIVO for now. If TIVO does move down, my Stop loss will get triggered, I will exit my position with no loss, but may consider going right back in if TIVO were to move back as low as $11.00 and bounce back up. Basically there are many possible scenarios, and I prefer to make my decisions or plan on a day-to-day basis.


Long TIVO@ at average of $11.43 - Stop Loss @ $11.52 (+0.80%)