Stock Trading Predictions & Technical Analysis: Quick Analysis - Gold, Canadian vs. US Dollar, Oil, Market

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Quick Analysis - Gold, Canadian vs. US Dollar, Oil, Market

My analysis on gold, is based on my observations of the Dow Jones, and the Canadian Dollar Index vs. the US Dollar. All three are very positively correlated with one another, and all have bounced back up strongly today. The Canadian dollar jumped back up so far from $92.7 yesterday to $93.7 today. The Canadian Dollar bounced back up strong support which was indeed around $92.7. When the Canadian Dollar is up relative to the US Dollar, this of course means that the US Dollar is down, and thus Gold is up as people start losing confidence in the US Dollar. The Canadian Dollar being up is mostly due to Oil being up because of the weaker US Dollar, and because Canada has a lot of Oil resources and its value is mostly driven by Oil prices (it's an Oil Dollar). The market being up so much, in part has to do with the fall of the US dollar, where it pushes prices up to compensate for the lower value. Usually when you see Gold up, the US dollar will be down, and therefore Oil will also be up along with the market. Basically what this means is if the US dollar and the market were to fall/increase by the same amount, you would only have artificial gains for that day, because the US Dollar will be worth less.

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TECHNICAL INDICATORS

BUY SIGNAL: Indicates the possibility of the start of a new up trend or the continuation of the current up trend. This signal may be often given in the early stages of a potential new up trend that was preceded by a down or sideways trend. Such signals do not always succeed and may fail at time.

BUY: Indicates that the current up trend is already in motion and a BUY SIGNAL was already given earlier. A BUY does not necessarily indicate that the stock will continue higher from here, but simply that the stock is trending up. The further into the trend you decide to take a long position, the more risk you have of seeing it reverse back down sooner rather than later.

STRONG BUY SIGNAL: Indicates a stronger, more significant and reliable signal than a BUY SIGNAL which usually has less chance of failing. Such signals do not always succeed and may fail at time.

STRONG BUY: Indicates that the current up trend is already in motion and that STRONG BUY SIGNAL was already given.

SELL SIGNAL: Indicates the possibility of the start of a new down trend or the continuation of the current down trend. This signal may be often given in the early stages of a potential new down trend that was preceded by an up or sideways trend. Such signals do not always succeed and may fail at time.

SELL: Indicates that the current down trend is already in motion and a SELL SIGNAL was already given earlier. A SELL does not necessarily indicate that the stock will continue lower from here, but simply that the stock is trending down. The further into the trend you decide to sell a position, the more risk you have of seeing it reverse back up.

STRONG SELL SIGNAL: Indicates a stronger, more significant and reliable signal than a SELL SIGNAL which usually has less chance of failing. Such signals do not always succeed and may fail at time.

STRONG SELL: Indicates that the current down trend is already in motion and that STRONG SELL SIGNAL was already given.

HOLD: Indicates that traders who already hold this stock, should hold on as long as the trend persists. This signal is usually given during an up trend for which it would be considered too risky to take a long position at this point.

STRONG HOLD: Indicates that the current trend has been in motion for a while and rarely deviated away from the trend. Although the stock may continue higher, there may not be enough potential up side to trigger a BUY SIGNAL. This type of indicator usually means that the stock has very strong support levels which may have been tested but not broken.

WAIT: Usually given during a sideways trend for which we are waiting for a move that would trigger a BUY SIGNAL or SELL SIGNAL. This could also indicate uncertainty and the risk that would be taken if you were to take a long position at the current level. Taking a long position after giving a WAIT indicator is considered a gamble.