Stock Trading Predictions & Technical Analysis: MGM & LVS

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

MGM & LVS - Engulfing Patterns

MGM - SELL
LVS - SELL

MGM did go over $14.00 today, but miserably failed to close above this level. This was to be expected, after such a huge run, and this is brutal, yet healthy for MGM to continue higher in the future. MGM did not manage to close above $14.00 today, which cancels what would have been the BUY signal I indicated this morning. MGM's next support levels are at $11.50 and $11.00, so look for MGM to bounce back up from these levels for any new BUY signal. Like I told you in my last posts: the more quickly this up trend continued the more brutal the drop would be. Today more than ever you can see why it is crucial to always have stop loss orders in place. For my part my TSO got triggered at $13.32, when I got in yesterday at $12.74, still a +4.50% gain (I managed to still make a small gain, thanks to my "Y-Swing" strategy, in which you can check out in my older posts). Better to have a small gain than a loss. I strongly suggest to SELL if you are still long, this will most likely go down again tomorrow. We got an engulfing pattern today indicating the top. Also this is finally the first down gap of the last 10 days. Please note that we can also observe this formation with LVS, which indicates a top (pullback). LVS may go as low as $16.00, and if it bounces up this level its upward trending channel will remain intact. If it breaks $16.00, the channel will be broken, and LVS may start trending down. For the long term (by year end), I'm still very bullish towards casino stocks.

4 comments:

UnknownSeptember 16, 2009 at 5:24 PM
Hi Yoel. What do you think about BAC? Today it went up, in your opinion we are still in the right shoulder formation and it will go down in the near future?
And also, what is your opinion about AUY, today it was flat. Do you still keep the buy recomendation?
Thanks
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DBSeptember 16, 2009 at 10:00 PM
Hi Yoel, Do MGM and LVS present an oppurtunity to short them? I have personally never shorted any stock, just curious to know.

Thanks
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YoelSeptember 16, 2009 at 10:12 PM
I personally would never short any casino stocks, as they are way too volatile with betas over 4. I would especially not start shorting for the first time with any of these stocks. The day you decide to short a stock, you must have a stop loss order set at all times. As you may already know, losses on a short position can be unlimited, whereas with a long position, you can only lose the money you invested.
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arkoSeptember 17, 2009 at 4:25 PM
mgm still a sell yoel?
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TECHNICAL INDICATORS

BUY SIGNAL: Indicates the possibility of the start of a new up trend or the continuation of the current up trend. This signal may be often given in the early stages of a potential new up trend that was preceded by a down or sideways trend. Such signals do not always succeed and may fail at time.

BUY: Indicates that the current up trend is already in motion and a BUY SIGNAL was already given earlier. A BUY does not necessarily indicate that the stock will continue higher from here, but simply that the stock is trending up. The further into the trend you decide to take a long position, the more risk you have of seeing it reverse back down sooner rather than later.

STRONG BUY SIGNAL: Indicates a stronger, more significant and reliable signal than a BUY SIGNAL which usually has less chance of failing. Such signals do not always succeed and may fail at time.

STRONG BUY: Indicates that the current up trend is already in motion and that STRONG BUY SIGNAL was already given.

SELL SIGNAL: Indicates the possibility of the start of a new down trend or the continuation of the current down trend. This signal may be often given in the early stages of a potential new down trend that was preceded by an up or sideways trend. Such signals do not always succeed and may fail at time.

SELL: Indicates that the current down trend is already in motion and a SELL SIGNAL was already given earlier. A SELL does not necessarily indicate that the stock will continue lower from here, but simply that the stock is trending down. The further into the trend you decide to sell a position, the more risk you have of seeing it reverse back up.

STRONG SELL SIGNAL: Indicates a stronger, more significant and reliable signal than a SELL SIGNAL which usually has less chance of failing. Such signals do not always succeed and may fail at time.

STRONG SELL: Indicates that the current down trend is already in motion and that STRONG SELL SIGNAL was already given.

HOLD: Indicates that traders who already hold this stock, should hold on as long as the trend persists. This signal is usually given during an up trend for which it would be considered too risky to take a long position at this point.

STRONG HOLD: Indicates that the current trend has been in motion for a while and rarely deviated away from the trend. Although the stock may continue higher, there may not be enough potential up side to trigger a BUY SIGNAL. This type of indicator usually means that the stock has very strong support levels which may have been tested but not broken.

WAIT: Usually given during a sideways trend for which we are waiting for a move that would trigger a BUY SIGNAL or SELL SIGNAL. This could also indicate uncertainty and the risk that would be taken if you were to take a long position at the current level. Taking a long position after giving a WAIT indicator is considered a gamble.