Tuesday, September 1, 2009

How did my BAC prediction went down from bullish to bearish?

FAILED FLAG FORMATION
When I first made my bullish prediction on BAC, I could observe a flag formation which actually turned to be wrong. One hint that I had not caught the first time, was the declining volume. It then became apparent once BAC did not pop up, but the price action continued to get more and more narrow.
CONFIRMATION OF RISING WEDGE (and beginning of the pullback)
Yesterday we had an indication that BAC's rising wedge formation was about to be confirmed, when BAC started to trend lower. But this was not enough to make the call, a second straight down session was required and big gap down was the ideal scenario. Today was the first time in over a month that BAC had 2 straight down sessions, just like the DOW JONES with a 3rd straight down session since the end of June (I don't think all this coinciding with the beginning of September is all a coincidence, being that it's the worsed month historically). All this combined, with secondary indicators all indicating a down trend, made me taking a short position today, a safe bet. I expect BAC to pullback to its base of where the rising wedge started, at $14.50. But it first has to go below $15.50 support level before this can occur. Going short with, almost any stock right now is a good bet, since the whole market in general looks to have started a correction. You can expect to see the DOW JONES trending down.


Someone asked me: when would it be best to go long again on BAC? At this time, it's hard to say. I would expect around any bounce backs on any of these support levels, which should be at least around $14.50. However, you should wait until the trend changes back to a clear uptrend before going long.

2 comments:

  1. Yoel, First of all thanks for blogging.
    Secondly, I m long on BAC, I would like to know when would be good time to start accumlating BAC.

    Thanks,
    DP

    ReplyDelete
  2. At this time, it's hard to say. I would expect around any bounce backs on any of these support levels, which should be at least around $14.50. However, you should wait until the trend changes back to a clear uptrend before going long.

    ReplyDelete

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