BIG SIGNAL UPDATES - AIG, AAPL, AUY, BAC, C, ENER, FSLR, LVS, MGM, RF, RIMM

For some reason, even though I'm still long BAC and AAPL, I feel I may get stopped out sooner rather than later. There is so much uncertainty in the market right now, that I would like to be all in cash, and WAIT for some signs of actually where the market could be heading next. This uncertainty is mostly linked to the fact that we have been waiting for a correction for so long that have yet to come, and now that the market has been down for the last couple of days, we are starting to wonder if the correction is starting now or if this is just a small pullback, and that the markets will continue higher.


AIG - WAIT

AIG is currently giving us a lot of mix signals, and that is one reason why I am issuing a WAIT signal. Just 4 days ago, AIG gave us a BUY signal for what I considered to be a pennant formation confirmation after AIG jumped over $40.00, and managed to remain above $45.00 where it has support now. However, like my last post on AIG, it was faced with resistance at $55.00, that it didn't manage to break through. Right now AIG is trending between $45.00 and $55.00, but there isn't strong enough support at $45.00 to issue a BUY signal just yet. AIG bouncing back up from $45.00 would be bullish but not enough to say it's a BUY, I would rather wait for AIG to go and close over $55.00 and remain above this level to get back in AIG. If AIG falls below $45.00, AIG's next support levels are at $40.00, $35.00, and $30.00. If we want to see AIG go higher, volume has to increase, but it has decreased in the last few days. AIG's 50 day MA crossed its 200 day MA a few days ago, which is bullish for the long term and indication this will head higher in the future. On the other hand the stochastic gave us a SELL signal today crossing down its signal line, and may not find support again until the the 25-30 level. In conclusion, AIG is giving a lot of mix signals. For the moment AIG's major trend is still up while its minor trend is down, so for the moment we can only say that AIG is going through a pullback rather than a correction. Basically we have to wait for a bounce back up from current support levels to get back in, and myself would not go back in AIG before it goes over $55.00, due to such high volatility.

AAPL - HOLD
Despite having a big down gap today, AAPL is still in a very strong uptrend, and has managed to stay within its current trading channel. A break below $180.00 may just mean that AAPL may fall back to its last uptrending channel, whose bottom is currently around $175.00. A big down gap below this channel (under $175.00) and/or its 50 day MA would be a major SELL signal. However AAPL has been strongly trending up over its 50 day MA since the month of July, so it would take some very bad news from AAPL to break its trend. I'm currently long AAPL at $185.00, and even if it falls back at the low end of its last channel my stop loss order of -7.00% will not get triggered. AAPL is a very slow moving stock, and in uncertain times damage may be limited if a correction begins, and that is why at least temporarily it is a good idea to shift toward those safer, less volatile stocks.

AUY - WAIT (Updated September 26th)
AUY has been in a very active and wide trading range lately, between $10.00 and $11.25-$11.50. It is currently trading sideways, and we had a sell signal a few days ago from the stochastic. If AUY breaks below $10.25-$10.00, it could find support at $9.75 and $9.25, there is very strong support at $10.00 though. A break over $11.25-$11.50 would give us a BUY signal. For the moment we can do nothing else but WAIT for AUY to give us a clear signal. But like many stocks, it seems to be at the verge of giving us a SELL signal. However despite this it's already near some very strong support levels. Currently both the MACD and Stochastic have given us SELL signals.

BAC - WAIT


BAC a stock for which I'm currently long is a stock I believe that I may get stopped out, possibly as soon as tomorrow and possibly whipsawed. I have a stop loss order currently set around $16.58. BAC currently stands just below $17.00 and is about to give us a SELL signal if it closes below around $16.75-$16.50. However it has strong support at its 50 day MA of $16.00 and $15.00, and a fall below these levels would be major sell signals. Personally I don't see BAC fall lower than $16.00, and it's currently in strong uptrend. What I have to decide tomorrow is if I let my stop loss order get the chance to get triggered or do I sell it before and WAIT, wherever it goes tomorrow and wait for a clear BUY signal? The last option is the most likely, and like I mentioned before I am looking to be more in cash right now, as a lot of stocks are at the verge of getting SELL signals. Basically we seem to be having WAIT signals who are waiting to give us SELL signals rather than BUY signals. The stochastic also gave us a sell signal a couple days ago. September 26th update: Just wanted to point out that as I expected my stop loss order for BAC got triggered and all my shares were sold at $16.55, taking a loss of under -7.00%. I am currently long AAPL only.

C - SELL



C like most other stocks is also giving us some mixed signals, but there the BUY signals seem to be more for the long term rather than the short term. In the short term we are getting SELL signals. Ever since I confirmed the diamond formation for C, it has been trending down, and this is why I'm issuing a SELL signal. After getting this diamond formation confirmation, we got another SELL signal today, with a dark cloud confirmation. C is definitly trending down. C does have support around $4.10-$4.00 above its 50 day MA, but now with the stock trending down, we have to wonder if it will stand above it. C did give us a BUY signal for the long term with its 50 day MA crossing over its 200 day MA, and the stochastic crossing above its signal line. However the stochastic seem like it's about to give us another SELL signal, but only the future will tell. If you are currently long C, you can wait and see if it manages to bounce back up over $4.00, before deciding to sell, but you do risk the chance of getting whipsawed, all depends how down you are. The first SELL signal with the diamond confirmation, is when you should have sold C in the first place, and now we are getting more SELL signals, but you may feel more pain the more you hold and may even be too late to sell, as you risk now the chance of getting whipsawed, it's a difficult situation.

ENER - SELL


ENER is in a strong down trend, despite going above its 50 day MA giving us a BUY signal about a week ago, it crossed down again below it giving us a SELL signal. It has some support at $12.00, but any move below it could make it fall back around $10.00. ENER has been below its 200 day MA for a while, and is in a major down trend. Unfortunately ENER never managed to close above $14.00 and start to break its down trend to turn into an uptrend.

FSLR - SELL

FSLR is in a strong down trend as well, but is looking much closer than ENER to break this trend. For one FSLR is above its 200 day MA, however it may cross below it very soon but it still has support at $147.00 and $141.00. However we did get a second consecutive SELL signal today. We first had a dark cloud formation where FSLR topped by hitting a higher high, closing below its opening price and below the previous day's close, confirmed by another down gap with a lower low and lower high. Today we got another SELL signal wih three black crows formation, with a third consecutive down gap with a lower low and lower high. Only when FSLR goes above $175.00, it will be considered the possible start of a trend up. We also got a sell signal from the stochastic, crossing down below its signal line.

LVS - HOLD

LVS is still in a very strong uptrending channel. However, LVS is at the bottom range of its channel, and we should know tomorrow if it will continue up along this range or cross below and give us a SELL signal. A bounce back up, would be very bullish and could be considered a minor BUY signal. For the moment, LVS is a HOLD, but tomorrow we'll know if this changes.

MGM - WAIT

MGM is currently a HOLD, and there is the possibility of seeing a flag formation confirmation if MGM manages to close above $14.00 and stay above it for two days for a confirmation. For this to occur MGM must not close below $11.50, and the up gap flag formation would then be canceled, and you could instead see a big sell off, where MGM could fall back as low as $9.00 to $7.80. I would then give MGM a price target of $8.30 ($7.80-$12.00=-$3.20+$11.50=$8.30). Most of the time an uptrending flag formation will break up, but on rare occassions it could also break down. Right now, if MGM continues to trade between $11.50 and $14.00, it's a WAIT. If MGM falls below $11.50, it's a SELL, and if it closes above $14.00, it's a BUY.

RF - HOLD


Today we had a dark cloud formation with RF, giving us a SELL signal, with the stochastic also about to give us another SELL signal. However, RF is in a strong uptrend and has big support at $6.00, and until breaks down below $6.00, RF remains a HOLD. RF's next support levels are at $5.75 and $5.25, and if it goes towards these levels and hold up, it may trend in a sideways channel for a while before continuing its trend up. RF's 50 day MA crossed its 200 day MA, a positive sign for the long term. So, if RF crosses below $6.00, RF would be a SELL. As long as it continues up along its trend line, you should HOLD.

RIMM - SELL (Updated September 25th)

Like I said a few days ago, RIMM was a WAIT until after earning report. Today we got a SELL signal with the price moving high to then close down hard. RIMM's next support levels are at $80.00 and $78.00. RIMM did not manage to stay above $85.00 for two consecutive days. Like I said, always wait after the earnings report and never act before it to get some guidance. Update: RIMM just had a huge breakout down, its next support level is now at $65.00. A break below $65.00 or $60.00 would trigger another major sell off, but I don't think it will go much lower than that.

Dow Jones - HOLD


Finally, the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Dow Jones, despite the recent bearish signals, is till in a very strong uptrend and a HOLD. For the moment the recent moves down, can only be considered a pullback, as the Dow is still trending up. The stochastic did give us a SELL signal, crossing down, but this, for now, may just be a sign of a pullback. It is too early to say if we are heading towards a correction. Right now, the Dow look like it could pullback around 9500-9600, and if it bounces back up the uptrend will continue. A break below its uptrend line would be a major signal, and perhaps the sign of the beginning of a correction. Until that happens, the Dow Jones is a HOLD.


As you may have noticed, we have no BUY signals among these stocks, which indicates that we are at least in a pullback, but you don't need me to tell you this to notice that of course.