Stock Trading Predictions & Technical Analysis: MGM, HGSI, ABX, SBUX, NFLX

Thursday, November 12, 2009

MGM, HGSI, ABX, SBUX, NFLX - Updates

Please note that despite giving SELL SIGNALS for some of the stocks I gave a BUY CONFIRMED, most of these stocks are looking to have a small pull back, and it depends on investment horizon. Most of my signals are very short term and usually set on a daily basis. But if you are already in gains, I would consider cashing them in if we get a SELL CONFIRMATION from the Dow Jones. I strongly suggest not taking any long positions. On the short side there are very little opportunities, the market's major trend is still up. Basically, I see a lot of stocks looking to pull back -10%, but it's not a risk worth taking with a potential loss of -7% or -8% to get a BUY SIGNAL again. Basically, the potential returns of a short position would be the same as if the trend bounced back up. So, it would be like betting at the casino, and it's not worth betting $10 to have a chance to make another $10. You want to take positions in the market where you would risk for example $10 to have the potential to make $30.

MGM - WAIT

Has not managed to go over $11.00-$11.25 and will not give us a BUY SIGNAL until then. So far MGM pulled back to its support level of $10.50. Falling below $10.50 should send it back to $10.00.

Note: I have sold my position today at $10.60 cashing in my gain of +8.00%, achieved in 7 days.

ABX - SELL CONFIRMED

Now that ABX has fallen again today along with GOLD and the rest of the gold stocks, we now have a SELL CONFIRMED. Since ABX has fallen below its $42.00 support level, it could pullback towards $39.00-$40.00. But I don't see any major pull back for Gold and for the longer term I'm still bullish towards GOLD.

Note: As I announced yesterday my VTSO was set to be triggered between $42.00 and $43.00 and indeed my position was sold at $42.62, cashing in a gain of around +16.00% in 14 days.

HGSI - SELL SIGNAL

Has broken its up trending channel within its potential pennant formation which is no longer valid. Despite a BUY CONFIRMATION yesterday, HGSI is now giving us a SELL SIGNAL along with the market. HGSI could pull back as low as $26 and $24. Keep in mind that despite this SELL SIGNAL, and like most stocks in the market I don't any major pull back occurring. On average from the few charts I've looked at most stocks have the potential of pulling back -7% to -10%. This mostly has to do with the fact that most stocks are in an up trend despite what looks to be like a small pull back coming up.

SBUX - HOLD

SBUX is now a HOLD and has very strong support at $21.50, $21.00, $20.50, and $20.30. Basically if SBUX does pull back along with the market I don't see it fall by too much, assuming the Dow Jones' trend continues and eventually pulls back.

NFLX - SELL SIGNAL

NFLX is still trending up but has given us a Dark Cloud formation, which may indicate it may fall further tomorrow. But again, NFLX has support at $56.00, $54.00, and $52.00.

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TECHNICAL INDICATORS

BUY SIGNAL: Indicates the possibility of the start of a new up trend or the continuation of the current up trend. This signal may be often given in the early stages of a potential new up trend that was preceded by a down or sideways trend. Such signals do not always succeed and may fail at time.

BUY: Indicates that the current up trend is already in motion and a BUY SIGNAL was already given earlier. A BUY does not necessarily indicate that the stock will continue higher from here, but simply that the stock is trending up. The further into the trend you decide to take a long position, the more risk you have of seeing it reverse back down sooner rather than later.

STRONG BUY SIGNAL: Indicates a stronger, more significant and reliable signal than a BUY SIGNAL which usually has less chance of failing. Such signals do not always succeed and may fail at time.

STRONG BUY: Indicates that the current up trend is already in motion and that STRONG BUY SIGNAL was already given.

SELL SIGNAL: Indicates the possibility of the start of a new down trend or the continuation of the current down trend. This signal may be often given in the early stages of a potential new down trend that was preceded by an up or sideways trend. Such signals do not always succeed and may fail at time.

SELL: Indicates that the current down trend is already in motion and a SELL SIGNAL was already given earlier. A SELL does not necessarily indicate that the stock will continue lower from here, but simply that the stock is trending down. The further into the trend you decide to sell a position, the more risk you have of seeing it reverse back up.

STRONG SELL SIGNAL: Indicates a stronger, more significant and reliable signal than a SELL SIGNAL which usually has less chance of failing. Such signals do not always succeed and may fail at time.

STRONG SELL: Indicates that the current down trend is already in motion and that STRONG SELL SIGNAL was already given.

HOLD: Indicates that traders who already hold this stock, should hold on as long as the trend persists. This signal is usually given during an up trend for which it would be considered too risky to take a long position at this point.

STRONG HOLD: Indicates that the current trend has been in motion for a while and rarely deviated away from the trend. Although the stock may continue higher, there may not be enough potential up side to trigger a BUY SIGNAL. This type of indicator usually means that the stock has very strong support levels which may have been tested but not broken.

WAIT: Usually given during a sideways trend for which we are waiting for a move that would trigger a BUY SIGNAL or SELL SIGNAL. This could also indicate uncertainty and the risk that would be taken if you were to take a long position at the current level. Taking a long position after giving a WAIT indicator is considered a gamble.