Monday, March 22, 2010

MGM - Strong Reversal

MGM - BUY

After pulling back as low as $11.36 today at its 50 day MA, MGM strongly bounced back up to trigger a BUY SIGNAL as it recovered all of the past days' losses. MGM closed higher today at $12.52 on strong volume and has now formed a Bullish 3 Method Formation which is a continuation pattern of the current up trend.

"The psychology behind this pattern is relatively simple. The first candle represents strong impulsive buying with high volume. The consolidation bars do not show any real selling but conversely allow longs to buy more of their positions while the stock drifts lower. Finally, when the longs are done accumulating their shares, the downward pressure is released and the stock is allowed to go higher, above the first candles high." (source: http://www.mysmp.com/technical-analysis/rising-and-falling-three-methods.html).

"The Rising Three Methods bullish continuation pattern occurs in a bull market, where during an uptrend the market rests before resuming the trend. The bullish trends break is reflected by small candles that all stick to a strict market range formed by the aggressive move on day one. A typical explanation for this type of formation might that the market is slowly digesting the relatively large moved reflected by day one." (source: http://www.fxwords.com/b/bullish-rising-three-methods-candlestick.html).

"Bullish rising three methods pattern is considered as a highly reliable trend continuation pattern. Reliability of the pattern increases with shortening of real-bodies (doji formations) of middle candlesticks and decrease in trading volumes of middle days." (source: http://www.nobletrading.com/blogs/2009/01/bullish-rising-three-methods-pattern.html).

I now feel very optimistic of seeing MGM finally going over $13.00 this week and perhaps as early as tomorrow. I feel a breakout on the up side for MGM is now imminent. As mentioned in earlier posts, a closing above $13.00 will trigger a STRONG BUY SIGNAL at which time we may see it move towards $17.00 and $22.00.



LONG MGM

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

MGM - Shooting Star Top Pattern

MGM - SELL SIGNAL

Today MGM moved as high as $12.67 before pulling back down and closing slightly down at $12.26. As a result of this we got a minor SELL SIGNAL as we can now observe a shooting star top pattern which indicates that MGM should continue pulling back lower tomorrow. MGM gave up all its gains today and closed down below its opening price which is always a bearish signal. Keep in mind that MGM's major trend is still up and will remain so as long as it trades within its up trending channel. Going into the next couple of days MGM is looking to move back towards $12.00 and perhaps as low as $11.65. What is important for MGM is to remain above these levels to maintain the up trend. I personally sold my position today at $12.26 cashing in a minor gain and I am looking to get back in perhaps tomorrow or the day after around the levels I mentioned. I personally chose to take the safe path with MGM as it is a very volatile stock. Before getting back in I want to wait and see if MGM manages to bounce back up from one of these level ($12.00 or $11.65). One possible scenario is seeing MGM move back lower towards these levels to then bounce back up and close higher. Although unlikely for tomorrow, they may even be a minor chance of seeing MGM close higher after hitting lower lows. If MGM breaks the $12.00 support level tomorrow I will be looking to getting in close to $11.65, only if it bounces back up first. Some people may ask that if MGM is still in a major up trend why should you not just hold MGM into tomorrow or the upcoming days? The answer is simple, there is no way to know if the shooting star pattern indicates a top for the major up trend or the recent 2 day minor up trend. MGM could break below $11.65 and then the door will be opened to move back towards its 50 day MA around $11.31 and even towards $10.00-$10.50 if it breaks the 50 day MA. If MGM manages to stay above $11.65 and $12.00, I believe this pullback may not last more than 1 or 2 days before MGM bounces back up. In the event where this shooting star SELL SIGNAL were to fail tomorrow and that MGM would just jump higher without hitting lower lows, I would wait and see if it manages to break $13.00 before getting back in. Like I mentioned in my previous posts if MGM jumps above $13.00 and closes above this level this would trigger a STRONG BUY SIGNAL. Right now what I expect to see happen, which is the most likely scenario is seeing MGM pullback as low as $11.65 or $12.00 to then resume the up trend and move closer again to $13.00 in the following days where the ultimate test will be.

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

MGM - Breaking through Resistance

MGM - BUY


After reversing back down yesterday to almost exactly its daily 50 day MA ($11.19) MGM managed to bounce back up and close at $11.38 yesterday. This was a bullish sign despite a failed SELL SIGNAL that was triggered by the Stochastic yesterday. Today, MGM moved back strongly higher and broke the $12.00 resistance level by closing near the highs of the day at $12.30 (+8.08%). The continuation of the current up trend is promising as MGM moved up today on stronger than average volume which is required for MGM to continue moving higher. Those who took a long position with MGM after seeing it bounce back up its 50 day MA are in comfortable position. MGM is now trading in an up trending channel indicated by the two blue parallel lines on the chart. For those who may want to get into MGM at this point, I would suggest that you WAIT and see what happens tomorrow. There are several possible scenarios:

1) WAIT: MGM continues higher towards $12.50, $12.75, or $13.00. If MGM breaks $12.50 it should manage to move towards $12.75 and $13.00. Buying around these levels would be too risky due to the very strong resistance level at $12.75-$13.00. If that occurs I would rather WAIT and see if MGM manages to break above $13.00. If you were to take a long position before that happens, there will be too much risk of seeing MGM reverse back down.

2) STRONG BUY SIGNAL: MGM breaks above $13.00. If that happens, this would trigger a STRONG BUY SIGNAL for which there would be a strong potential for MGM to continue to shoot up higher towards the $22.00 target price as I indicated in my last post. Please note that for a STRONG BUY SIGNAL to be confirmed it is preferable to see if MGM can manage to stay above $13.00 for a day or two, and then take a long position. However, MGM being such a volatile stock with a high beta may make you lose a lot of up side if the STRONG BUY SIGNAL is confirmed. With that being said if MGM breaks above $13.00 and you believe that it will manage to close above this level on that day, you should take a long position then.

3) BUY SIGNAL: MGM pulls back towards $12.00 and bounces back up. If this occurs this will be a confirmation that the previous $12.00 resistance level is now a support level. If this happens tomorrow, taking a long position will be considered a safer bet. Even if you end up buying around the same price as you can buy it now, this would be an indication that there is less chance of seeing the $12.00 level broken any time soon, and MGM may indeed continue higher.

4) WAIT: MGM moves back down and closes below $12.00. If that happens, this doesn't mean MGM will necessarily start trending down, but simply that you may be able to get in at a cheaper price. If that occurs MGM closes support level is around $11.60-$11.70, and a bounce back up from this level in the following day or two could be a good entry point.

5) HOLD: MGM breaks below $11.60. If that occurs MGM could be heading back towards its 50 day MA which is currently around $11.25. However, at this point taking a long position with MGM wouldn't be very interesting as it may start trading sideways for a while.

6) STRONG SELL SIGNAL: MGM breaks below its 50 day MA. If that happens, this will trigger a STRONG SELL SIGNAL as the ascending triangle pattern will be considered to have failed as MGM would very likely head back towards $10.50-$10.00.

Among these scenarios, the most likely ones to occur are scenarios 1, 2, and 3. Right now, MGM is looking bullish but keep in mind that this is a high beta (high risk) stock as things can change very quickly in a matter of days. This is a stock that has to be monitored carefully.

LONG MGM

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